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Beating the Iranian war drum

We’re witnessing a run-up to another war in the middle East, this time against Iran.  The pretext is the same as for the war against Iraq.  Our rulers claim the Iranians are developing atomic bombs.  The response that seems most appealing to our rulers is to send planes and bombs to stop the Iranians.

Those advocating war cannot have thought this through.  Published accounts say the Iranians have scattered their nuclear program around the country in a great many sites buried deep within mountains.  You can bet the Iranians will have three fake bunker entrances for every real one, fake nuclear sites, fake tunnels, fake everything.  They will anticipate how deep to bury things to protect them from “bunker busting” bombs.  And they will have secret sites never before revealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) during inspections.  They’ll have more secret sites behind the other secret sites.

This means Iran’s nuclear development cannot be stopped by air attack alone.  It’ll require people on the ground to search Iran, find all their nuclear sites, blast into each one, and destroy whatever we dislike.  That kind of search would, in turn, require conquering the country.

How hard might it be to conquer Iran?  If their war against Iraq is any indication, they’ll use tactics our military has never experienced.  The Iranians famously used waves of unarmed children to clear Iraqi minefields.  What would our soldiers do if confronted by a great horde of bomb-vested Iranian children advancing before the enemy?

Could the mullahs take the fight to us?  Imagine: They appeal to the Norks or renegade Pakis.  A nuke device finds its way aboard something like a New York City garbage barge, gets floated around the oceans long enough to be lost and ignored, then gets towed into a major American port city.  After a few weeks, a “sleeper” suicide agent climbs aboard and lights it off.  Scary thought: The mullahs might be able to accomplish this even if their country was conquered.

Finally, the mullahs saw what happened to Kim Jung Il when he detonated an atomic bomb (never was attacked, died of old age, succeeded by oddball son).  And they saw what happened to Saddam Hussein when he failed to build an atomic bomb (got invaded, defeated, captured, humiliated, hanged, gallows video now on Youtube).  Finally, they saw what happened to Muammar Khadafi even after he surrendered his nuclear program under Bush-II (Obama aided Khadafi’s enemies, bombed cities, rebels overthrew him, killed his children, captured him, shot him in the head, gory video of his fresh cadaver now on Youtube).

Now President Obama is threatening the Iranian mullahs and ayatollahs over their nuclear program and declaring that he doesn’t bluff.  Do you suppose the mullahs and ayatollahs are obediently putting the brakes on atomic development, or are they now throwing everything they have into it?

If you were Ahmedinejad, what would you be doing to improve your chances of dying like Kim Jung Il and not like Hussein or Khadafi?

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